[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2F    0255UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 143/97

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             145/99
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field, Bz, was again mildly (5nT) southward. Solar wind speed 
moderately elevated starting UT day at 400km/sec, currently near 
500km/sec. Isolated M class event from region 9997 in far south-west 
of solar disk. Event considered not geoeffective. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9973 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 24 Jun. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2322 2122
      Darwin              12   2442 2223
      Townsville           7   2223 2111
      Learmonth            7   1223 2121
      Canberra             5   1222 2111
      Hobart               6   1222 3111
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 2122
      Davis(Ant)          15   24-3 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   1212 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
25 Jun    12    Unsettled 
26 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods can be expected today. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair          
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Jun      Fair           Fair           Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
23 Jun   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun   110    near predicted monthly values 
25 Jun   110    near predicted monthly values 
26 Jun   110    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 405 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    62600 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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