[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 140/94

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             150/105
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field, Bz, was again mildly southward over the UT day. Solar 
wind speed moderately elevated at 420km/sec, in association with 
a coronal hole. Solar wind speed will probably begin to 
decline over next two days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1211
      Darwin               4   2211 1212
      Townsville           4   2211 1111
      Learmonth            4   1210 1221
      Canberra             3   1211 1200
      Hobart               4   1211 1210
      Casey(Ant)           7   2322 1220
      Davis(Ant)          13   3-33 2--2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   2323 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun    12    Unsettled 
23 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
24 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: A slower than 27 day recurrence pattern suggests isoalated 
active periods can be expected 23-26 June. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
21 Jun   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun   110    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
23 Jun   110    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
24 Jun   110    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Brief local night degradations and mild post dawn depressions 
may be experienced southern Aus/NZ region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   144000 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060