[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 June 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 145/99

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jun             22 Jun             23 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            155/109
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field, Bz, was mildly southward over the UT day. Solar wind speed 
moderately elevated at 480km/sec, in association with a coronal 
hole. Solar region 0008 in the south-east quadrant of the solar 
disk, showed slight growth overnight. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2222 1011
      Darwin               5   2222 1122
      Townsville           2   1111 1012
      Learmonth            5   2232 0001
      Canberra             2   1121 1000
      Hobart               2   1111 1000
      Casey(Ant)           7   2332 1111
      Davis(Ant)           8   ---3 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            46   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             16   4333 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Jun    12    Unsettled 
23 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: A slower than 27 day recurrence pattern suggests isoalated 
active periods can be expected 23-26 June. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
20 Jun   115

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jun   110    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
22 Jun   110    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
23 Jun   110    about 5% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Brief MUF depressions may be experienced after local 
dawn, southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 494 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   188000 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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