[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.2    0010UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.2    0642UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.3    0831UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.1    1903UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M9.1    2113UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 242/191


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            225/175            220/170
COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3223 2232
      Darwin              10   3322 2233
      Townsville           8   2223 2222
      Learmonth            9   3222 2233
      Canberra             9   -223 1232
      Hobart               7   2213 1222
      Casey(Ant)           9   3322 1232
      Davis(Ant)          15   33-3 33--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JUL : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              62   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   3323 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled 
28 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled 
29 Jul    16    Unsettled with possible active periods. 
COMMENT: Recent flare activity does not appear to have any significant 
CME associated activity except for the M8-flare observed at 2114 
UT. Increased activity is possible from this event on 29 July. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 0715UT 22/07, Ended at 0845UT 26/07
 and, Began at 0945UT 26/07, Ended at 1055UT 26/07
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jul   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul   120    near predicted monthly values 
28 Jul   120    near predicted monthly values 
29 Jul   105    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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