[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JULY - 28 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jul: 218/168


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jul             27 Jul             28 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            220/170            225/175
COMMENT: Again not much activity over past 24 hours from regions 
of interest, so solar forecast now reduced. A weak shock was 
observed in the solar wind at 1258UT. Shock was much smaller 
than expected 450-500km/sec and the north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field became strongly northward 
post-shock, a condition that greatly reduces geoeffectiveness. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2322 2223
      Darwin               7   2222 2223
      Townsville           9   2322 3223
      Learmonth            7   2222 2223
      Canberra             8   2222 3222
      Hobart               7   2222 2222
      Casey(Ant)          12   2432 3224
      Davis(Ant)          15   3442 223-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            48   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12   3332 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
27 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 24 July and 
is current for interval 25-26 July. Geomagnetic storm forecast 
dumped due to weakness of shock/impulse from recent X class event. 
Conditions now expected to be mostly nominal. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 07 2002 0715UT and 
	    is in progress (declining).

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-Poor(Weak PCA)
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Increased absorption and spread F visible on high latitude 
ionograms. Conditions at high latitudes should improve today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Jul   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
27 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
28 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 24 July 
and is current for interval 25-26 July. Geomagnetic activity 
following shock arrival minimal. Nominal HF conditions now expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jul
Speed: 442 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    78300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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