[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 July 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JULY - 26 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**  MAG:**RED**  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X4/2B    0035UT  probable   all    West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jul: 198/150


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jul             25 Jul             26 Jul
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            195/147            200/152



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3322 2223
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           8   3222 2223
      Learmonth            9   3222 2233
      Canberra             8   3222 2223
      Hobart               6   2222 2123
      Casey(Ant)          11   3332 2233
      Davis(Ant)          19   3433 4---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              42   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20   3345 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jul    12    Unsettled 
25 Jul    50    Storm levels 
26 Jul    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: The CME associated with the X4-flare observed on 23 
July is expected to impact the Earth in the latter half of the 
UT day of 25 July. Minor and possible major storm levels are 
expected to follow. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 07 2002 0715UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)-normal   
25 Jul      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Poor          
26 Jul      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible for high latitudes for 
24 July due to absorbtion from PCA event. Degraded HF conditions 
again expected for 25-26 July for all latitudes due to anticipated 
increased geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts possible on 
daylight HF circuits due to active solar regions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jul   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Jul    75    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30% 
26 Jul    90    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 23 July 
and is current for interval 23-25 July (SWFs) . Degraded HF conditions 
possible for high latitudes for 24 July due to absorbtion from 
PCA event. Degraded HF conditions again expected for 25-26 July 
for all latitudes due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity. 
Shortwave fadeouts possible on daylight HF circuits due to active 
solar regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jul
Speed: 510 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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