[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 190/143


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            195/147



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3333 3333
      Darwin              NA   
      Townsville          13   3333 3323
      Learmonth           13   3333 2333
      Canberra            11   2333 2323
      Hobart              11   2333 2323
      Casey(Ant)          13   2333 3333
      Davis(Ant)          21   3443 4-3-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             19   4442 3331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul    15    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of active 
                periods. 
24 Jul    12    Quiet to unsettled 
25 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The CME associated with the X3-flare observed on 20 
July is not directed earthward, however, we may receive a glancing 
blow from this CME which may produce active periods. No significant 
activity is expected from this event. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 07 2002 0715UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible for high latitudes due 
to absorbtion from PCA event. Shortwave fadeouts possible on 
daylight HF circuits due to active solar regions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jul   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
24 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions possible for high latitudes due 
to absorbtion from PCA event. Shortwave fadeouts possible on 
daylight HF circuits due to active solar regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C8.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 544 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    44700 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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