[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 129/82

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 1122
      Darwin               6   2222 2123
      Townsville           6   2232 1022
      Learmonth            6   2222 1032
      Canberra             7   2223 1122
      Hobart               6   2223 1111
      Casey(Ant)           8   3322 1122
      Davis(Ant)          13   3333 23-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            59   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              73   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             16   4333 2433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jul    12    Unsettled 
13 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Fair           Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
10 Jul   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jul   120    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   117000 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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