[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.3 08/2320UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0905UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 136/90

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jul             11 Jul             12 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             135/89
COMMENT: The increasing trend in flux on the ACE EPAM precursor 
data channel peaked early on 09 July, below event thresholds, 
then rapidly declined with no sign of a weak shock in solar wind 
data. Solar wind speed gradually ramped up from 400-480km/sec. 
This may be due to a small isolated equatorial coronal hole, 
which was near the centre of the solar disk on 07 July. At the 
time of the M2 xray flare an optical flare was visible at N20 
on the western limb of the sun. This area was not associated 
with an existing region, suggesting a new region may have appeared, 
and it may be worth noting, and to watch the NE limb in 13 days 
time. A new region (SEC 30) has rotated around the north-east 
limb and has low level M flare potential. A large back-side semi-halo 
mass ejection was observed around 2018UT in LASCO C3 imagery. 
No on disk activity was observed around the time of the CME, 
and it is presumed to be from region 17 behind the south-western 
limb of the sun. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2233 2332
      Darwin               9   2222 2332
      Townsville           9   2232 2322
      Learmonth            9   2232 1332
      Canberra             9   1223 2332
      Hobart               7   1123 2222
      Casey(Ant)          11   2333 2232
      Davis(Ant)          14   3343 223-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   3213 3223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jul    12    Unsettled 
11 Jul    12    Unsettled 
12 Jul     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Forecast active prediods failed to eventuate. Unsettled 
conditions next two days due to coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : Began at 1820UT 07/07, Ended at 0435UT 08/07
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
09 Jul   111

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jul   110    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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