[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan: 231/181

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            225/175            225/175
COMMENT: A long duration C7 flare was observed 0325-0706 UT. 
This flare appeared to be associated with a mass ejection on 
or behind the eastern limb of the sun. As such this CME is not 
directed towards the earth and is not considered geo-effective. 
Some bright emmission can be seen around the north-east limb 
in LASCO eit imagery and some spots may be rotating around the 
limb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2321 1113
      Darwin               2   -210 0113
      Learmonth            3   3210 0001
      Canberra             4   2310 0103
      Hobart               4   2310 0103
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-33 2112
      Davis(Ant)          11   2432 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JAN : 
      Darwin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2012 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Jan    11    Unsettled 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
24 Jan   164

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan   170    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
26 Jan   170    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
27 Jan   170    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    85300 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060