[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan: 227/177

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            225/175            225/175
COMMENT: Two type II radio sweep events associated with C class 
flare activity from solar region 9794 located in the north-east 
solar quadrant, at 0335 and 1337UT. LASCO imagery did not show 
significant mass ejections. Potential shock arrival window for 
these events is 06-23UT on 26 Jan, however minimal effects expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3223 2233
      Darwin               6   2113 1223
      Learmonth            9   3223 1232
      Canberra             9   2223 2232
      Hobart              10   2223 2333
      Casey(Ant)          18   4--4 3233
      Davis(Ant)          27   4--- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JAN : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1132 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
23 Jan   163

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan   170    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
25 Jan   170    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
26 Jan   170    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    86300 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060