[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 15 10:15:14 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.4 0627UT Confirmed lower West. Aus/Mid East/Indian
M1/2N 0156UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1/SF 0136UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.1 2246UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 229/179
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 240/189 240/189
COMMENT: M4.4 flare was reported to be from behind the west limb
of the Sun, probably due to lack of on disk activity at the time
of xray event. Flare was CME associated. This flare also had
a slow decline, so a weak 10MeV proton event may occur. A very
weak increase in flux of 50MeV protons was observed second half
of UT day on 14 Jan. Weak type II sweep observed with event,
shock speed range 800-1100km/sec. However, since CME reported
from behind the suns west limb this event is considered to have
very low geoeffectiveness. Solar wind speed continued to decline,
now at 420km/sec, Bz fluctuated southward 5nT over the UT day.
A shortwave fadeout was observed in association with the M4 flare
in the north/western Australian region from 0515-0745UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 3322 2223
Darwin 6 3221 1212
Learmonth 9 3322 2223
Canberra 7 2222 2222
Hobart - ---- ----
Casey(Ant) 19 44-3 33--
Davis(Ant) 15 33-- 3334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JAN :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart NA
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2243 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Jan 12 Unsettled
17 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. An
apparent weak recurrent pattern may increase activity on 17 Jan,
along with a possible very outside chance for CME induced activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : Began at 2055UT 10/01, Ended at 1505UT 13/01
Proton flux levels currently enhanced, but below event
level.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Normal Fair
16 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Elevated proton flux expected to cause increased absorption
on 15 Jan, at polar regions. HF conditions at low to mid latitudes
expected to be normal. Mild degradation possible 17 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
14 Jan 153
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jan 170 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 170 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Jan 170 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 12 January
and is current for interval 13-15 January (SWFs) . Enhanced MUFs
expected for today. Mild degradation possible local night hours
16-17 Jan.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jan
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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