[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    0310UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M2/SF    1946UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 241/190

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jan             15 Jan             16 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            235/185            240/189
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continues its steady decline. Solar 
region 9773 remains magnetically complex and further M class, 
possibly X class flare activity probable. Two other solar regions, 
9775 and 9778, also have flare potential. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   2324 3323
      Darwin               9   2223 2323
      Learmonth           10   2223 3323
      Canberra            11   2323 3323
      Hobart               -   ---- ----
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
      Davis(Ant)          23   34-5 4323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JAN : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              NA

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15   3344 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Jan     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to decline, over next 
3 days. Mild recurrent activity possible 17 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 2055UT 10/01, Ended at 1505UT 13/01
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Improved HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
13 Jan   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Some absorption observed early in UTday,
      Near predicted monthly values over rest of UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jan   130    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
15 Jan   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Jan   160    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 12 January 
and is current for interval 13-15 January (SWFs) . A return to 
enhanced MUFs is generally expected, with good HF conditions. 
Some southern region sites may be mildly depressed early in the 
uT day today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 584 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    96000 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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