[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 January 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    0807UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 229/179

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            235/185            240/189
COMMENT: Solar wind speed at around 600km/sec for most of the 
UT day, due to coronal hole effects. It appears the old region 
9742 has returned to the north-east limb as region 9782, and 
possibly 9748 has also returned as region 9781, on the 
south-east limb. Both these region were reasonably flare productive 
on their previous transit. Current region 9773 in the north-west 
quadrant remains very flare capable, with steep magnetic gradients 
reported in this spot group. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 11 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      26   4444 3533
      Darwin              18   4333 3433
      Learmonth           24   5333 3533
      Canberra            21   3444 3433
      Hobart              23   4444 2---
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
      Davis(Ant)          50   55-- -644
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JAN : 
      Darwin              46   (Unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           18   (Quiet)
      Canberra            90   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             116   (Major storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             17   2123 4543     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan    16    active 
13 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
14 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 7 January and 
is current for interval 11-13 January. Active conditions expected 
due to coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 10 01 2002 2055UT and 
is in progress (declining).

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Poor(PCA)
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF comms degraded due to PCA. Proton flux 
is slowly declining declining. Mildly increased geomagnetic activity 
expected to degrade night-time HF comms at mid to high latitudes 
over next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
11 Jan   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      15% deporessed to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan   135    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan   135    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jan   135    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 9 January 
and is current for interval 10-12 January (SWFs) . Mildly degraded 
HF coms conditions expected over next two days, particularly 
local night hours, southern Aus/NZ region in association with 
increased coronal hole sourced geomagnetic activity over this 
period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:   188000 K  Bz:  -4 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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