[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 January 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 11 10:14:30 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JANUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jan: 225/175

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jan             12 Jan             13 Jan
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            235/185            240/189
COMMENT: Solar wind data shows that the earth has gradually entered 
a high speed wind stream. Superimposed on this was an indistinct 
shock at around 1545UT 10 Jan. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic fiedl, Bz, fluctuated southward by up 
to 20nT post shock. Speculatively, this discontinuity may have 
originated from a glancing blow from limb based CME events on 
08 Jan. Solar wind speed is currently at around 600km/sec, and 
Bz is mildy northward. A proton event began 2135UT 10 Jan, and 
is in progress. The origin of these protons is unclear as this 
event had a gradual ramp increase in flux, rather than a jump 
in flux, suggesting a non-usual/non-direct path of delivery. 
Solar region 9773 did not produce M class flare activity over 
past 24 hours, however, this region still has good flare potential. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9742 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 11 Jan. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 9748 is also due for return to the south-east 
limb around this day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jan: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 10 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      26   2333 4644
      Darwin              23   2323 4635
      Learmonth           23   2323 3643
      Canberra            22   2333 4544
      Hobart              20   2333 3543
      Casey(Ant)           -   ---- ----
      Davis(Ant)          39   35-- 4644
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JAN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1220     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jan    18    active 
12 Jan    16    active 
13 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 7 January and 
is current for interval 11-13 January. One isolated major storm 
period observed overnight. This brief activity was not expected. 
Active conditions expected due to coronal hole. 
A weak (44nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1619UT on 10 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 10 01 2002 2055UT and is 
in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Poor(PCA)
12 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF comms have become degraded since around 
11UT, due to increased geomagnetic activity (CME) and increased 
solar proton flux, causing increased absorption. High latitude 
HF comms expected to be very degraded for today due to onset 
of proton event and continued geomagnetic activity from coronal 
hole high speed wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
10 Jan   169

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jan   125    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
12 Jan   135    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jan   135    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 9 January 
and is current for interval 10-12 January (SWFs) . Unexpected 
bief geomagnetic activity overnight may cause depressed MUFs 
after local dawn this morning particulalrly southern region Aus/NZ. 
Southern region MUFs in general are expected to come down (from 
recently enhanced levels) over the next few days in association 
with increased coronal hole sourced geomagnetic activity over 
this period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jan
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    63600 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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