[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0257UT  confirmed  lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 211/162

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            220/170            220/170

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3222 3223
      Darwin               7   2212 3223
      Learmonth            6   2111 3222
      Canberra             8   2222 3222
      Hobart               7   2222 3212
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--3 3223
      Davis(Ant)          12   33-3 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 FEB : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2111 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb     6    Quiet 
27 Feb     7    Quiet to unsettled 
28 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
25 Feb   174

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb   170    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
27 Feb   160    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
28 Feb   160    15-20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    37500 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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