[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 193/145

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Feb             26 Feb             27 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            180/133

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2223 2112
      Darwin               4   2112 2111
      Learmonth            5   2212 2112
      Canberra             5   1212 3112
      Hobart               6   1222 3102
      Casey(Ant)           8   2--4 111-
      Davis(Ant)           9   3-33 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 FEB : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   2110 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Feb     6    Quiet 
26 Feb     6    Quiet 
27 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
24 Feb   186

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
     Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Feb   160    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
26 Feb   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
27 Feb   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    40800 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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