[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    2122UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 193/145

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Feb             20 Feb             21 Feb
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            185/138
COMMENT: Solar region 9830 produced the M1 event. The M1 event 
was a little unusual with a slow rise. This region continues 
to develop in magnetic complexity. Isolated M class flare activity 
expected. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2232 2334
      Darwin              10   2222 3334
      Learmonth            8   2222 23-4
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               8   1132 2234
      Casey(Ant)          11   3-43 121-
      Davis(Ant)          15   3343 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 FEB : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1342 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Feb     6    Quiet 
20 Feb     4    Quiet 
21 Feb     4    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
18 Feb   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-20% local day.
      Enhanced by 15% local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Feb   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
20 Feb   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
21 Feb   170    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Some mild depressions observed after local dawn this 
morning at some southern region sites. However, generally good 
conditions expected today, with enhanced MUFs likely, particularly 
northern Aus. region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: 426 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    89000 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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