[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: **YELLOW**
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb: 197/149

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            195/147            190/143
COMMENT: Two weak shocks observed the first at 0209 (solar wind 
speed jump 360-394) and the second at 0450UT (solar wind speed 
jump 397-433km/sec. Brief southward fluctuations were observed 
around shock arrival times. Solar wind speed is currently at 
400km/sec. A solar region in the south-east quadrant of the solar 
disk is showing a gradual increase in size and complexity. 
Chance for low level M class events. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 17 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3453 2212
      Darwin              12   3442 2112
      Learmonth           17   3453 2212
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              17   3453 2212
      Casey(Ant)          26   4563 221-
      Davis(Ant)          19   3354 2323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 FEB : 
      Darwin              18   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              65   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2001 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Feb     6    Quiet 
20 Feb     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mild geomagnteic activity observed with arrival of weak 
shocks from recent CME activity. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Fair-Normal    Fair-Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Midly degraded HF conditions observed at high latitudes 
over past 24 hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
17 Feb   157

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb   140    enhanced 15% northern Aus. region 
18 Feb    90    depressed 15% southern Aus./NZ region
19 Feb   170    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
20 Feb   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed in HF conditions, southern 
Aus/NZ during local night hours last night. Southern region MUFs 
depressed 15% after local dawn this morning. Northern region 
MUFs enhanced 15% after local dawn this morning. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    31900 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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