[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb: 195/147

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            185/138            185/138
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined over past 24 hours, hoever 
a shock(s) remains expected over next 24 hours from recent CME 
activity. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2220 1212
      Darwin               3   1-10 1212
      Learmonth            3   2100 1211
      Canberra             3   1110 1212
      Hobart               2   1110 0111
      Casey(Ant)           8   3332 110-
      Davis(Ant)           7   --30 ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 FEB : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1021 1221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb    18    Active to minor storm. 
17 Feb    16    Initially at active to minor storm levels then 
                declining. 
18 Feb    10    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 13 February 
and is current for interval 15-16 February. Expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity has yet to eventuate, but remains likely. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
16 Feb due to recent partial earth-directed CMEs. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
15 Feb   176

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15 local day.
      Enhanced 65% local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb   160    initially enhanced 10-25% then becoming depressed 
                10-15%. 
17 Feb   110    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 14 February 
and is current for interval 15-17 February. Anticipated geomagnetic 
activity has yet to eventuate, so depression forecast now slipped 
back by a day. Good HF conditions expected for first half of 
UT day today. Mild degradation expected 16 Feb southern region 
Aus/NZ. Equatorial region/Northern Aus. expected to remain near 
to 15% above normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    84100 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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