[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 196/148

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            190/143
COMMENT: Two further partical halo mass ejections observed around 
13/21UT and 14/0518UT. The first event was biased more eastward, 
the second event, is more likely to be geoeffective with emssion 
seen to the southwest. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2211 0002
      Darwin               2   2211 0002
      Learmonth            2   2210 0002
      Canberra             2   1211 0002
      Hobart               2   1211 0002
      Casey(Ant)          10   3432 210-
      Davis(Ant)           3   ---1 ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 FEB : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            85   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              74   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   2133 3321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb    12    Initially quiet, then increasing to active conditions 
                during second half UT day. 
16 Feb    18    Active to minor storm 
17 Feb    16    Initially at active to minor storm levels then 
                declining. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 13 February 
and is current for interval 15-16 February. Active to minor storm 
periods now expected late 15-17 Feb due to further CME activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
15/16 Feb due to recent partial earth-directed CMEs. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
14 Feb   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-40%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb   150    enhanced 10-15%/depressed 10-15% late in UT day 
16 Feb   100    initially depressed 10-15% then returning to 
                near normal. 
17 Feb   120    depressed 15%/Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 14 February 
and is current for interval 15-17 February. Good HF conditions 
expected for first half of UT day today. Mild degradation expected 
late 15 to 16 Feb southern region Aus/NZ. Equatorial region/Northern 
Aus. expected to remain near to 15% above normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 512 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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