[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 208/159

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            215/165


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9787 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 13 Feb. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   3332 1212
      Darwin               8   3232 1213
      Learmonth            7   3222 1212
      Canberra             8   2332 1223
      Hobart               8   2332 1223
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--3 22--
      Davis(Ant)          14   3443 2211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 FEB : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            64   (Active)
      Hobart              62   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   2234 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Feb     6    Quiet 
15 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active conditions on 13 Feb are possible due 
to the influence of a high speed stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
12 Feb   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb   160    5 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
14 Feb   150    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 505 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:   162000 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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