[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 202/153

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            210/161            215/165


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9787 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 13 Feb. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   3334 3323
      Darwin              12   3233 3323
      Learmonth           10   3223 3222
      Canberra            13   3333 3323
      Hobart              12   3233 3323
      Casey(Ant)          27   4--4 ----
      Davis(Ant)          26   3445 4433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 FEB : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3232 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active conditions on 13 Feb are possible due 
to the influence of a high speed stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
11 Feb   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb   145    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    86500 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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