[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 24 10:20:36 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was moderately southward for the first half of the UT day.
A jump in solar wind speed and temperature was observed near
10 UT with (500 to 600 km/sec), speed now is 500km/sec. Another
weak shock signature from the recent M1/CME may be observed late
24/25 Dec. Most of the solar sunspot groups are now on the western
solar hemisphere, with the sun looking fairly blank on the eastern
hemisphere. Solar activity is thus expected to trend to low levels
as recent flaring regions depart the solar disk in the next few
days, and with the apparent lack of intersting regions due for
return. The large isolated equatorial coronal hole (South American
shaped) visible in SOHO EIT 284 imagery is now approaching solar
central meridian. An increase in solar wind speed is expected
27-28 Dec. This hole is expected to be geoeffective, as recurrence
shows a mildly southward IMF on previous rotations during this
interval.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 20 3334 4344
Darwin 19 3234 4344
Townsville 17 2234 4343
Learmonth 17 3324 3433
Canberra 20 3344 4244
Hobart 14 2343 3234
Casey(Ant) 19 4--3 3345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 DEC :
Townsville 17 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 64 (Active)
Hobart 78 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 2223 3342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 18 Initially active then declining.
25 Dec 14 Unsettled to active, chance minor storm period.
26 Dec 14 Initially unsettled, possible mild increase to
active at end of UT day.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 23 December
and is current for interval 23-24 December. Moderately disturbed
conditions observed over past 24 hours. Active to minor storm
periods may be experienced late 24/25 Dec due to the recent M1
mass ejection. A stronger disturbance is possible during interval
27-28Dec due to a large equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions observed at mid to high latitudes
overnight. Conditions are expected to improve over next copule
of days, before becoming degraded again 27-28Dec due to anticipated
coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15-20%.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-30%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Some spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 75 depressed 15% (south Aus/NZ)
24 Dec 135 enhanced 15% (north Aus)
25 Dec 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Dec 130 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 80 was issued on 23 December
and is current for interval 24 December only. Depressed MUFs
expected for southern Aus/NZ region today, following overnight
geomagnetic activity. Mufs then expected to recover. Further
degraded period expected around 28 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 32800 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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