[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 December 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 23 09:55:23 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1/2F 0230UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 172/126
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters show an increase (too slow to
be a true shock) around 10UT with wind speed increasing from
400 to 470km/sec. It is unclear if this is the expected CME shock
signature, if so its is less than what was predicted. Curiously,
ACE EPAM precursor data is currently showing an increasing trend,
usually particle flux in this data channel drops after shock
has past, so it is possible another shock may arrive in the next
24 hours. The equatorial coronal hole in the Sun's eastern hemisphere
appears reasonably large and is likely to be geoeffective around
27 Dec. Solar region 223 now in north-west quadrant produced
the only M class event for the day. This M1 was associated with
reported Type II and IV radio sweeps implying a mass ejection
has occured with this event. Event parameters indicate a potential
shock arrival window 22UT on 24 Dec to 07UT on 25 Dec. Further
isolated low level M class activity expected.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 21 3123 5354
Darwin 19 3223 5344
Townsville 21 3123 5354
Learmonth 28 2124 5-63
Canberra 14 2213 4344
Hobart 13 2113 4343
Casey(Ant) 20 3--4 4243
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 DEC :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 59 (Unsettled)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 4532 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 25 Active to minor storm periods.
24 Dec 18 Active
25 Dec 10 Initially active then declining.
COMMENT: Coronal mass ejection induced geomagnetic activity not
as strong as expected. However, further minor storm activity
is possible today due to recent coronal mass ejection activity.
Also, activity may be experienced on 24/25 Dec due to the M1
inferred mass ejection.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Coronal mass ejection induced activity not as strong
as expected however, degraded conditions still expected today
at mid to high latitudes, and may extended to 24 Dec due to recent
inferred mass ejection.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 155
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 135 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Dec 120 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 120 10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on 21 December
and is current for interval 22-23 December. So far coronal mass
ejection induced geomagnetic activity has been less than expected.
Depressed MUFs no longer expected for today, some mild depressions
may be experienced southern Aus/NZ region. It is possible another
shock may arrive today yielding degraded conditions late 23/24
Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 6.4 p/cc Temp: 42800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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