[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 December 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 146/100

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Dec             04 Dec             05 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            175/129
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few C-class 
flares were observed, the largest being a C9.5 at 1927UT 
from region  208 (N10E35).  Region 207(S20E06)  is the
largest region on the disk. There is low possibility of
M-flare from region 207 and 208. The solar wind speed is 
still enhanced due to the  effect of  the coronal  hole.
The solar  wind speed  remained  between 460 km/s  and 
500 km/s for most of the UTday 02 Decembe02. The 
inter-planetary magnetic field stayed weakly southwards
for almost the whole day. The coronal hole effect seems 
to be showing a gradual decline now. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Mostly unsettled. 

Estimated Indices 02 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2333 2323
      Darwin              11   24-2 2323
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            9   2223 2323
      Canberra            10   2233 2323
      Hobart              11   2333 2322
      Casey(Ant)          16   4--3 23--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 DEC : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            63   (Active)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             16   4334 4333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Dec    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
04 Dec    10    Mostly quiet. Isolated unsettled periods possible. 
05 Dec     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic  Warning 43 was  issued on
29 November and is current for interval 30 November 
to 3 December. The solar wind speed seems to be showing 
a gradual  decrease as the  coronal hole  effect  is
subsiding. The geo-magnetic activity remained mostly at
unsettled levels today, and it is expected to show a 
gradual decline during  the next  three  days. The
geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain at mostly
unsettled levels tomorrow and then gradually decrease 
to quiet levels during the next 2 days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
05 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Isolated periods of minor MUF dpressions and 
degradedations in HF conditions may be observed on high 
latitude locations. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Dec   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of minor depressions.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of depressions upto approximately 15%.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Dec   108    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Dec   112    Mostly near predicted monthly values/enhanced 
                by 5%. 
05 Dec   115    Mostly near predicted monthly values/enhanced 
                by 5%. 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on 
29 November and is current for interval 30 November to 
3 December. Isolated periods of minor  depressions  in
MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may be observed 
in Southern Australian/NZ regions on UT day 03 December. 
The HF conditions are expected to return to normal after 
that as the coronal hole effect seems to be declining now. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 509 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  
Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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