[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 2 10:52:20 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few C-class flares
were observed, the largest being a C5.5 at 1528UT from region
208 (N10E49). Region 207(S19E20) is the largest region on the
disk. There is low possibility of isolated M-flare from region
207 and 208. The solar wind speed is still enhanced due to
the effect of the coronal hole. The solar wind speed remained
between 480 km/s and 540 km/s for most of the UTday 30
November. The inter-planetary magnetic field stayed weakly
southwards for almost the whole day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Mostly unsettled to active.
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 20 3444 4323
Darwin 15 3--- ----
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 21 -434 4423
Canberra 18 3334 4333
Hobart 19 3344 4323
Casey(Ant) -- ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 DEC :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16 3443 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 18 Mostly unsettled to active.
03 Dec 15 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
04 Dec 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 29
November and is current for interval 30 November to
3 December. The solar wind speed remained between 480
to 540 km/s today. The geo-magnetic activity remained
mostly at unsettled to active levels. The geo-magnetic
activity is expected to remain mostly from unsettled
to active tomorrow and then gradually decrease to
unsettled and quiet levels during the next two days
after that. However, if Bz remains only weakly southward
(as observed during the last 48 hours), the geo-magnetic
activity may not rise upto the expected level.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to show minor to
mild degradations during the next two days -especially at
mid- and high-latitude locations. These degradations are
expected due to the currently going on coronal hole effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with
short periods of depressions.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 86
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 94 Mostly near predicted monthly values/depressed
by 5%.
03 Dec 105 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on
29 November and is current for interval 30 November to
3 December. HF conditions in Australian/NZ regions are
expected to show minor degradations during the next two
days- especially in the Southern Australian regions.
These degradations and possible MUF depressions are
expected due to the currently going on coronal hole effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 171000 K
Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list