[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 3 09:54:17 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/0F 1053UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at moderate level on 2 August.
Region 0039(S15W70) produced M1 flare at 1053UT/2Aug. This region
also produced six C-class flares. Regions 55, 57 and 44 also
produced C-class flares. Solar wind speed showed a rapid rise
from 460 to 540km/s between 0100 and 0500 UT, Bz went southward
at this time and this resulted in minor geomagnetic storm conditions.
Solar wind stream may be strengthened during the next 3 days
as a coronal hole is reaching geo-effective position.Solar
activity is expected to remain at low to moderate levels
during the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 19 4432 3345
Darwin 16 4322 3345
Townsville 17 4422 3345
Learmonth - ---- ----
Canberra 18 4422 2445
Hobart 16 4322 4---
Casey(Ant) 19 5432 23-3
Davis(Ant) 26 -543 34--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 AUG :
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 26 2444 5435
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 12 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
04 Aug 14 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
05 Aug 14 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
COMMENT: A rapid rise in solar wind speed was observed between
0100UT and 0500UT on 02August. The solar wind speed increased
from 460 to 540 km/s approximately. The interplanetary magnetic
field went southward during this period-resulting in minor geo-magnetic
storm conditions. Solar wind speed has gradually decreased to
approximately 440km/s now, but a further rise is possible due
to a possible glancing effect of the partial halo CME observed
on 1August and also due to the fact that a coronal hole is reaching
a geo-effective position. The geomagnetic activity is expected
to remain mostly at unsettled levels with the possibility of
going upto active levels at times during the next 3 days. If
Bz goes strongly southwards for long intervals of time, even
isolated periods of minor geomagnetic storm levels are also possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed
on high latitudes on 3-5 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with
periods of depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 120 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
04 Aug 118 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
05 Aug 118 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
COMMENT: Periods of minor degradations may be observed in the
southern Australian regions during 2-5 August due to an expected
slight rise in the geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 53000 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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