[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 2 09:57:27 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 193/145
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 180/133 170/124
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0423UT on
01 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 16 2333 4422
Darwin 19 2433 443-
Townsville 20 1334 542-
Learmonth - ---- ----
Canberra 15 1333 4423
Hobart - ---- ----
Casey(Ant) 15 3433 3322
Davis(Ant) 18 3344 3332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 AUG :
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3212 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 16 Mostly quiet to unsettled. Active periods possible.
03 Aug 12 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
04 Aug 14 Mostly unsettled. Active periods possible.
COMMENT: A moderate shock was observed at 0423UT/1Aug which increased
the solar wind speed from 380 to 470 km/s approximately. It was
followed by a weak sudden impulse of 18nT. Bz went southward
on the arrival of this shock and remained southward for nearly
2 hours. Then Bz remained nothward for nearly 3hours and again
went southward around 1000UT for another 3 hours. Bz is northward
since 1300UT approximately. The arrival of this shock and variation
in Bz raised the geomagnetic activity to active levels , and
even upto minor geomagnetic storm level for some time. Another
partial halo CME observed around 0618UT/1August may have a glancing
effect on the geomagnetic activity on 3 and 4 August. However,
it could not be confirmed from LASCO imagery if it was a front
side event. A coronal hole is also expected to reach a geoeffective
position by 3 August and can raise the geomagnetic activity to
active levels on 3 and 4 August.
A weak (18nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 0511UT on 01 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions may be observed
on high latitudes on 2 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 126
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 55% over the UT day with
periods of depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 101
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 115 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
03 Aug 120 near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 115 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Isolated
periods of minor depressions possible in Southern
Australian regions.
COMMENT: Periods of minor degradations may be observed in the
southern Australian regions on 2 August due to an expected slight
rise in the geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 77300 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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