[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 153/108

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at low level. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9893 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 30 Apr. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 9901 is also due for return to the north-east 
limb around this day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 29 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2223 2222
      Townsville           6   1113 2222
      Learmonth            6   2122 2222
      Canberra             5   1212 2222
      Hobart               5   1212 2222
      Casey(Ant)           7   2--3 1222
      Davis(Ant)          12   2333 233-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             19   3444 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 May     6    Quiet 
02 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
29 Apr   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr   140    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
01 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
02 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 516 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:   163000 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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