[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 147/101

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Apr             30 Apr             01 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             150/105
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at low level. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9893 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 30 Apr. Also, previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 9901 is also due for return to the north-east 
limb around this day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 28 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   4444 3232
      Townsville          17   3344 3233
      Learmonth           13   3333 3322
      Canberra            16   3443 2233
      Hobart              16   3444 2222
      Casey(Ant)          16   4433 3221
      Davis(Ant)          25   5344 4242
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              51   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8   2112 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Apr    12    Unsettled 
30 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled 
to active levels on 29 April due to recurrent coronal hole effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
28 Apr   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
30 Apr   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
01 May   140    10 to 2% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 415 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:    94100 K  Bz:  -3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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