[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F 24/2156UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 167/121

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            175/129
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be low. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2210 0111
      Townsville           1   1100 0111
      Learmonth            1   1100 0110
      Canberra             0   0100 0011
      Hobart               1   1100 0011
      Casey(Ant)          15   333- ----
      Davis(Ant)           8   3222 1133
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            82   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              55   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3112 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr     6    Quiet 
27 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Apr    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet 
to unsettled levels on 26 April, and unsettled to active levels 
on 27 and 28 April due to recurrent coronal hole effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 21 04 2002 0235UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
25 Apr   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 65% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr   135    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
27 Apr   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
28 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.6E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 490 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   127000 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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