[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    2157UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 177/131

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            185/138
COMMENT: 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3222 2222
      Townsville           5   2212 1222
      Learmonth            7   3122 2121
      Canberra             5   2212 1222
      Hobart               5   2112 1221
      Casey(Ant)          10   3-33 2212
      Davis(Ant)          15   33-3 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             22   1463 3423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet 
to unsettled levels during 25 - 26 April, and unsettled to active 
level on 27 April due to recurrent coronal hole effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 21 04 2002 0235UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
24 Apr   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
26 Apr   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
27 Apr   150    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 515 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   358000 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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