[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 23 09:52:27 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Low
Region 9912 produced a C2 flare, associated with a Type II radio
sweep at 1210/22 April. The >100MeV proton event has ended but
the >10MeV proton event is expected to continue till 24 April.
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 170/124
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 175/129
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 2313 2222
Townsville 7 2312 1222
Learmonth 8 2312 1322
Canberra 7 2312 1222
Hobart 8 2322 2222
Casey(Ant) 15 34-3 3323
Davis(Ant) 18 -4-4 3232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 APR :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 3221 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 25 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated periods
of minor storm level possible.
24 Apr 18 Unsettled to active
25 Apr 12 Mostly unsettled. Quiet periods possible.
COMMENT: A bright partial halo CME was observed from the western
limb from region 9906 which was associated with an X1.5 flare
at 0155UT on 21 April. The CME speed is estimated to nearly 2400km/s.
It is not earth-directed but it has been a major event. It may
be wide enough to cause geomagnetic activity on 23 and 24 April.
The >100MeV proton event,associated with this CME and that started
at 0155/22April, has ended.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 21 04 2002 0235UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
24 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: The partial halo CME, observed on 21 April, may cause
geomagnetic activity on 23 and 24 April. Due to the un-availability
of ACE and LASCO data (probably because of high proton flux),
it is not possible,at this stage, to conclusively say if the
CME is going to be geo-effective or not. The HF conditions may
have slight degradations on 23 and 24 April at low and mid-latitude
locations if the CME proves to be geo-effetive. The >100MeV proton
event has ended but the >10MeV proton event is still in progress.
The HF conditions in the polar region are,therefore, expected
to remain degraded untill 24 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
22 Apr 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 125 near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 135 near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 140 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Due to the partial halo CME and the geomagnetic activity
may rise on 23 and 24 April. It may cause mild depressions in
MUFs in the Australian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 282 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 94900 K Bz: -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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