[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 X1/1F    0151UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 173/127

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            180/133


Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9885 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 22 Apr. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   3221 1123
      Townsville           5   3211 1124
      Learmonth            5   3221 1113
      Canberra             4   3111 1113
      Hobart               5   3211 1112
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-32 2223
      Davis(Ant)          10   3332 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              66   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             62   7776 4442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated periods of 
                active to minor storm level possible. 
23 Apr    25    Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated periods 
                of minor storm level possible. 
24 Apr    18    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: A bright partial halo CME was observed from the western 
limb from region 9906 which was associated with an X1.5 flare 
at 0155UT on 21 April. The CME speed is estimated to nearly 2400km/s. 
It is not earth-directed but it has been a major event. It may 
be wide enough to cause geomagnetic activity on 22 and 23 April. 
A >100MeV proton event,associated with this CME and the X1 flare, 
also started at 0155/22April and is expected to continue until 
23 April. A >10 MeV proton event started at 0225/23 April and 
is expected to continue till 24 April. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Fair           Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 21 04 2002 0235UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor          
23 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor          
24 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
21 Apr   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr   125    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
23 Apr   125    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
24 Apr   135    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Due to the partial halo CME and the geomagnetic activity 
may rise on 22 and 23 April. It may cause some depressions in 
MUFs. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 572 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    54900 K  Bz:  -6 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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