[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 20 09:41:23 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 180/133
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field remained southward for nearly 8 hours. A shock in the solar
wind speed was observed around 0802UT/19 April.The solar wind
speed increased from 450km/s(approx) to 550km/s(approx) on arrival
of the shock and went upto nearly 700km/s. This shock is associated
with the CME observed on 17 April. Several C-class flares were
observed from region 9906, which still maintains its size and
magnetic complexity. This region is still flare capable.
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0802UT on 19
Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Active to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 39 4455 4554
Townsville 33 4445 4454
Learmonth 41 4346 5555
Canberra 36 4445 4553
Hobart 36 4445 4553
Casey(Ant) 29 4355 4433
Davis(Ant) 42 4466 4444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 APR :
Darwin NA
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 35
Planetary 54 6765 4443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 25 Mostly active
21 Apr 12 Quiet to unsettled
22 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 19 April and
is current for interval 19-20 April. A shock in the solar wind
speed was observed at 0802UT/19 April. This shock, associated
with the CME observed on 17 April, increased the solar wind speed
from 450km/s(approx) to 550km/s(approx) on arrival. The solar
wind speed reached upto nearly 700km/s soon after the arrival
of the shock. The geomagnetic activity went upto minor storm
level on 19 April as per the expectations. The geomagnetic activity
is expected to decline to active level on 20 April as the CME
passes the earth.
A weak (23nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 0836UT on 19 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : Began at 1530UT 17/04, Ended at 0050UT 18/04
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to active
level for most of the day on 20 Aril. The HF conditions are mostly
expected to remain un-affected by the geo-magnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
19 Apr 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
'Normal' to 'degraded upto 40%' over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 140 about 20% above predicted monthly values
21 Apr 150 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
22 Apr 160 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 19 April
and is current for interval 19-20 April. The geomagnetic activity
is expected to decline to active level for most of the day on
20 April. The geomagnetic activity is not expected to have any
significant effect on the HF conditions across Australia.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 22000 K Bz: -6 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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