[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 188/141

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     Moderate           Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            175/129            170/124



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Active to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 18 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      33   5444 4544
      Townsville          42   5555 4543
      Learmonth           39   5445 5545
      Canberra            42   5455 5544
      Hobart              39   4455 5543
      Casey(Ant)          18   4333 3434
      Davis(Ant)          38   5543 4644
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            71   (Active)
      Hobart             106   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        45
           Planetary             50                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             41   2326 6653     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr    45    Active to minor storm 
20 Apr    25    Mostly active 
21 Apr    15    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 18 April and 
is current for interval 19-20 April. A 'halo' CME observed on 
17April/0824UT is expected to affect the geomagnetic activity 
on 19 and 20 April. The geomagnective activity may rise up to 
minor storm level on 19 April. The greater than 10MeV proton 
event, which started yesterday, has ended at 0050UT/18 April. 
A weak (25nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 1139UT on 18 Apr. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 1530UT 17/04, Ended at 0050UT 18/04
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor     
20 Apr      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair          
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at active 
to minor storm level on 19 April. Degradations in HF condition 
may be expected. The >10MeV proton event has ended at 0050 on 
18 April 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
18 Apr   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Degraded upto 20% to enhanced upto nearly 20%.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr   120    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr   140    near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr   150    15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Due to the expected geomagnetic activity at 'active 
to minor storm' level on 19 April, degraded HF conditions are 
expected on 19 April. The HF conditions are expected to recover 
in the second half of April 20. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    99100 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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