[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 184/137

GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Sep             03 Sep             04 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2211 0111
      Darwin               -   ---- ----
      Townsville           2   2200 0001
      Learmonth            3   2211 0101
      Canberra             4   2311 0111
      Hobart               3   2211 011-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 SEP : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   3344 3433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
03 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
04 Sep    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 31 August and 
is current for interval 2-3 September. Geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be unsettled to active on 2-3 Sep due to recurrent 
coronal hole activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 Sep   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Sep    95    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
03 Sep    95    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
04 Sep   105    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 31 August 
and is current for interval 2-3 September. Depressed conditions 
are expected on 2-3 Sep due to geomagnetic activity. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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