[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 1 09:16:02 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 1042UT possible lower European
M2.9 2242UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 189/142
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 190/143
COMMENT:
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 2224 2312
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 7 2213 2212
Learmonth 8 2223 2311
Canberra 10 2224 2312
Hobart 10 2234 2211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 AUG :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 2233 3432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 18 active
02 Sep 20 active
03 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 31 August and
is current for interval 1-2 September. Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be active 1-2 Sep due to recurrent coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
02 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions are expected on 1-2 Sep due to
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 95 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
02 Sep 95 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Sep 110 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 31 August
and is current for interval 1-2 September. Depressed conditions
are expected on 1-2 Sep due to geomagnetic activity.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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