[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:YELLOW     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 138/92

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             142/96             144/98

COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased to 650km/sec. The earth 
has entered a high speed solar wind stream, a weak shock was 
observed 0922UT as we entered the stream. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 12 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   2234 5354
      Darwin              20   3224 5343
      Townsville          19   2224 5343
      Learmonth           26   3234 5455
      Canberra            26   2235 5353
      Hobart              26   2235 535-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   3122 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
14 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrent activity was stronger than expected, with 
minor storm periods observed during local night hours. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair     
14 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mid to High latitude HF communication degraded local 
night hours. High latitudes conditions expected to be degraded 
early today then improving. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 May   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May   100    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
14 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
15 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degradation observed local night hours, southern Aus/NZ 
region. Mildly depressed MUFs expected after local dawn this 
morning. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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