[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:YELLOW     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 137/91

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate    Low to Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             150/105

COMMENT:A solar region (9455) in the south east quadrant of the solar
disk has shown growth of past 24 hours. The largest region on disk,
region 9454, in the north east quadrant, has been quiet. A solar 
filament disappeared from the south east quadrant of solar disk 
overnight. ACE EPAM 47-65MEv Proton data flux exceeded 1.0e+04 p/cm2, 
which can be a precursor to possible mild increased geomagnetic 
activity commencing over next 36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 1122
      Darwin               4   2211 1123
      Townsville           7   3210 123-
      Learmonth           11   3--3 223-
      Canberra             2   1111 0112
      Hobart               2   1011 0112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             28   5554 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
13 May    14    unsettled to Active
14 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Weak 27 day recurrent pattern suggests that mild activity 
can be expected on 12 May. Some mild effects may be felt from
recent disappearing solar filament on 13 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 May   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed local night.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
13 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
14 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 


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