[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0040UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 176/130

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            165/119

COMMENT: Region 9433 has rotated off disk. Flare rate may decline. 
Isolated M class events possible. Three small isolated coronal 
holes are on the solar disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2232 1111
      Darwin               7   2232 1122
      Townsville           7   2232 1121
      Learmonth            6   2222 2211
      Canberra             5   1132 1111
      Hobart               4   1222 110-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1011 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 May    15    Unsettled to Active 
05 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Possible slight increase in geomagnetic activity due 
to coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Recurrent pattern 
is strongest for 05 May. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 May      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at high latitudes next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 May   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
04 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
05 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced for 
southern region Aus/NZ during local night hours 4-5 May. 

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