[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/SF    1917UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 210/161

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            180/133            175/129




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 0012
      Darwin               2   2110 0011
      Townsville           2   1110 1013
      Learmonth            5   2221 1223
      Canberra             0   1000 0001
      Hobart               1   1010 0011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5   1000 1331     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
03 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
04 May    15    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of active 
                periods. 
COMMENT: Possible slight increase in geomagnetic activity on 
May 4 due to a coronal high solar wind stream. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 May   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
03 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
04 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 


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