[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 June 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 163/117

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            170/124

COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 600 to 500 km/sec over 
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was southward early in the UT day, then predominately northward. 
M class flaring expected due to solar region development. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   4333 2222
      Darwin              14   4333 2322
      Townsville           8   3232 1223
      Learmonth           16   5332 2232
      Canberra            13   4333 2223
      Hobart              11   3333 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 JUN : 
      Darwin              61   (Active)
      Townsville          46   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth           14   (Quiet)
      Canberra           103   (Major storm)
      Hobart             132   (Severe storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             20   3433 3345     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun    13    Unsettled, chance of active periods
12 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jun     9    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 9 June and 
is current for interval 10-11 June. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: MIld degradation in HF coms quality local night hours.
HF conditions should improve as coronal hole induced 
effects decline. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
10 Jun   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Some spread F local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Some spread F.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jun   120    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 10 June 
and is current for interval 10-11 June. HF conditions at mid 
to high latitudes expected to improve over next few days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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