[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 June 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 10 JUNE - 12 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jun: 177/131

GOES satellite data for 08 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jun             11 Jun             12 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            185/138            185/138

COMMENT: Solar wind speed gradually increased from 400 to 600km/sec 
ove rthe UT day, as the earth entered a coronal hole solar wind 
stream. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field fluctuated southward over much of the UT day. M class flaring 
becoming more likely, one solar region showed growth overnight. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   2333 3344
      Darwin              13   2333 ----
      Townsville           5   1221 ----
      Learmonth           15   2333 3344
      Canberra            13   2333 ----
      Hobart              10   1323 ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 JUN : 
      Darwin              17   (Quiet)
      Townsville          60   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2222 2233     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active, chance of minor storm.
11 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Anticipated coronal hole sourced mild activity has now 
eventuated. Active periods likely over next 24 hours during local night. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected local night 
hours at high due to coronal hole induced effects. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Jun   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild degradation local night hours, mid to high latitudes. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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