[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 June 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 08 JUNE - 10 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jun: 165/119

GOES satellite data for 06 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jun             09 Jun             10 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            170/124            170/124
COMMENT:A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0851UT 
on 07 Jun. Solar wind speed increased from 380 to 420km/sec pre/post 
shock. The interplanetary magnetic field remained northward post 
weak shock. Isolated M class flaring remains possible. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2212 3112
      Darwin               5   2222 2112
      Townsville           4   1112 2112
      Learmonth            9   3222 3222
      Canberra             7   1213 3111
      Hobart               7   1213 3111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 JUN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   2222 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jun    16    active 
09 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
10 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected at mid to high latitudes 
due to geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 Jun   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation local night hours, mid to high latitudes. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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