[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun: 158/112

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            165/119
COMMENT: A north polar coronal hole is currently located near the 
centre of the solar disk. Isolated M class flares possible, most 
likely from region 9488 in south-east quadrant of solar disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1111 2122
      Darwin               6   2222 212-
      Townsville           2   1110 1022
      Learmonth            7   2222 2222
      Canberra             4   1111 2122
      Hobart               3   1111 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 JUN : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville          60   (Unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   3312 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
08 Jun    15    Unsettled to Active 
09 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity may increase slightly for June 
7-8 due to a geoeffectively positioned coronal hole. Outside 
chance of minor storm periods during this interval. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions expected local night 
hours at high latitudes 7-8 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Jun   113

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 


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