[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 July 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 140/94

GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jul             24 Jul             25 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 2112
      Darwin               5   2222 1112
      Townsville           3   1121 1112
      Learmonth           NA 
      Canberra             5   1222 2112
      Hobart               5   1222 2112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JUL : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              8   1202 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 
24 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Jul   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Minimal data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly enhanced greater than 30%.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jul   110    Depressed 15-20% at times for northern Australian 
                regions, otherwise mostly near predicted monthly 
                values. 
24 Jul   115    near predicted monthly values 
25 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Conditions have been mildly degraded for northern Australian 
regions over the past few days and slightly degraded conditions 
are possible at times for this region for 23 July. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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