[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 July 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JULY - 24 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jul: 139/93

GOES satellite data for 20 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jul             23 Jul             24 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             135/89




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1211 2102
      Darwin               2   1211 1002
      Townsville           1   0100 1011
      Learmonth           NA 
      Canberra             2   1200 2101
      Hobart               3   1210 2101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JUL : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2223 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 
23 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 
24 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Jul    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values
      to depressed by 15-30% at times.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly enhanced greater then 30%.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jul   110    Depressed 15-20% at times for northern Australian 
                regions, otherwise mostly near predicted monthly 
                values. 
23 Jul   110    Depressed 15-20% at times for northern Australian 
                regions, otherwise mostly near predicted monthly 
                values. 
24 Jul   115    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Conditions have been mildly degraded for Northern Australian 
regions and are likely to be mildly degraded at times for this 
region over the next couple of days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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