[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 184/137

GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jan             15 Jan             16 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            195/147            195/147


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        8   3223 2113
      Darwin                8   3223 2203
      Townsville            8   3223 2113
      Learmonth             8   3223 2212
      Canberra              7   2223 2113
      Hobart                7   2233 2102
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2323 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jan     8    Quiet to unsettled 
15 Jan     7    Quiet to unsettled 
16 Jan     6    Quiet to unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Jan   151

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jan   105    Slightly below predicted monthly values 
15 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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